International Crisis Group

Averting Disaster in Syria’s Idlib Province

An imminent military showdown in Idlib with disastrous human costs can be avoided only if Turkey strikes a deal between Russia, on one hand, and militants, on the other, and deploys its forces along the front lines to deter an escalation.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/file/5939/download?token=H6SUN8qY

 

Israel, Hizbollah and Iran: Preventing Another War in Syria

Facts on the ground in Syria are defining the contours of the country’s political future and also the geography of a looming clash between Israel, Hizbollah and other Iran-allied militias. Russia should broker understandings to prevent a new front from opening.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/file/5920/download?token=oMMgkIYl

 

The Korean Peninsula Crisis (I): In the Line of Fire and Fury

A nightmarish Korean peninsula war is closer than at any time in recent history. In the first of a two-part series, Crisis Group examines the interests and calculations of the states most affected or involved: North Korea, the U.S., South Korea, China, Japan and Russia.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/file/5800/download?token=VhZwsicV

The Korean Peninsula Crisis (II): From Fire and Fury to Freeze-for-Freeze

Brinksmanship on the Korean peninsula threatens a potentially catastrophic military escalation. In this second report of a two-part series, Crisis Group lays out the steps to de-escalate the crisis and buy time for a more durable solution.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/file/5799/download?token=2xlMLJzK

Seven Priorities for the African Union in 2018

In 2018, the African Union (AU) and its new Assembly Chairperson President Paul Kagame of Rwanda have the chance to push ahead with much-needed institutional reforms. But the AU must not lose focus on dire conflicts and defusing potential electoral violence.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/b135-seven-priorities-for-the-au-in-2018.pdf

 

The Iran Nuclear Deal at Two: A Status Report

The 2015 Iran nuclear accord is working, but is at risk from longstanding U.S.-Iran rivalry, Trump administration policies and Tehran’s upsurge of activism in the Middle East. The deal’s other signatories should encourage the U.S. not to withdraw and consider ways to sustain the deal regardless of U.S. actions and as long as Iran remains committed to it.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/181-the-iran-nuclear-deal-at-two-a-status-report_0.pdf

 

Endiguer la dérive autoritaire en Tunisie

Report Nº 180 / Middle East & North Africa. La polarisation politique et la nostalgie, illusoire, d’un gouvernement centralisé fort planent au-dessus du septième anniversaire du déclenchement de la révolution tunisienne de 2011. La coalition au pouvoir devra mener les réformes qu’elle avait promises, mettre en place la Cour constitutionnelle et organiser des élections municipales, déjà reportées à de nombreuses reprises, si elle veut que la transition tunisienne reste l’exemple d’une transition réussie dans le monde arabe.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/180-endiguer-la-derive-autoritaire-en-tunisie.pdf https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/180-stemming-tunisias-authoritarian-drift_0.pdf

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2018. From North Korea to Venezuela, here are the conflicts to watch in 2018

That’s a statement more easily written than believed, given the U.S. president’s erratic comportment on the world stage — his tweets and taunts, his cavalier disregard of international accords, his readiness to undercut his own diplomats, his odd choice of foes, and his even odder choice of friends. And yet, a more inward-looking United States and a greater international diffusion of power, increasingly militarized foreign policy, and shrinking space for multilateralism and diplomacy are features of the international order that predate the current occupant of the White House and look set to outlast him.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/10%20Conflicts%20to%20Watch%20in%202018-A4.pdf

Ukraine: Will the Centre Hold?

Report Nº 247 / Europe & Central Asia. Far from the deadly battle against Kremlin-backed separatists in its eastern provinces, Kyiv faces a groundswell of resentment and disenfranchisement among citizens in the country’s west. To restore faith in the state’s laws and institutions, the government must address endemic corruption to win back those in the state’s margins.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/247-ukraine-will-the-centre-hold.pdf

Zimbabwe’s “Military-assisted Transition” and Prospects for Recovery

Briefing Nº 134 / Africa. President Emmerson Mnangagwa has the chance to embark on a much-needed process of economic and governance reform in Zimbabwe. The military’s role in the political transition casts a shadow on the road to credible elections, which remain a priority if his government is to earn national and international legitimacy.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/b134-zimbabwez-s-military-assistedtransition.pdf