La mala gestión económica, la corrupción y la disminución de las reservas han llevado a Venezuela a la ruina y a atrasar los pagos de sus deudas generando un incumplimiento parcial de estas. Negociaciones comprehensivas y supervisadas internacionalmente, que incluyan la restauración de los poderes al parlamento son esenciales para allanar el camino hacia una reestructuración de la deuda y unas elecciones presidenciales libres y justas.
Asia Report N°291. Thailand’s Malay-Muslim society overwhelmingly rejects transnational jihadism, but the country’s vulnerable south is a potential seedbed for advocates of violence. Bangkok and the main militant separatist organisation can head off any jihadist expansion in South East Asia by energising peace talks and agreeing on a more decentralised political system.
The fight against Boko Haram in Cameroon’s Far North, the country’s poorest region, has exacerbated the already-delicate economic situation and placed under strain traditional socio-economic roles. The government and international partners should embrace development policies that take into account the local population’s resilience strategies and adaptation to new economic realities.
The rerun of Kenya’s presidential elections scheduled on 26 October risks escalating a political crisis, as the main opposition leader has withdrawn and the risk of violence is high. The election commission should seek from the Supreme Court a 30-45 day delay to the vote. Kenya’s political leaders should support such an extension and commit to participate.
The 14 October 2017 twin bombings in Mogadishu mark the deadliest attack in Somalia since 2007. As Somalis unite in their disgust at AlShabaab, the most likely perpetrator, President Farmajo must immediately provide care for victims and use surging support for the government to redouble efforts aimed at overcoming the divisions in Somalia’s society that make AlShabaab such a persistent threat.
Against a backdrop of bomb blasts, sporadic violence and repressive state measures, Cameroon’s Anglophone crisis has entered a new and intensified phase. In order to prevent the outbreak of an armed uprising, Cameroon’s president must go beyond superficial measures by urgently implementing key reforms and pursuing inclusive, high-level dialogue mediated by the UN or African Union.
El acuerdo de paz colombiano de 2016 ha llevado a más de 10.000 guerrilleros de las FARC al umbral de la vida civil. Sin embargo, en el camino ha dejado a grupos rivales luchando por el control de los territorios desalojados y por el rentable cultivo de coca. Para contener la floreciente producción de estupefacientes y frenar la expansión de grupos no estatales, el Gobierno colombiano deberá proporcionar medios de subsistencia alternativos para los campesinos locales, así como desarrollar mejoras en la seguridad y la gobernanza a nivel comunitario.
September’s independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan has pushed Baghdad to take control of Kirkuk and its oil fields from Kurdish control. To avert the threat of further direct confrontation, the two sides must agree to a reinvigorated UN-led effort to settle longstanding disputes over internal boundaries and shared oil revenues.
Relations between the African Union (AU) and European Union (EU) reached a nadir in 2016 following serious disagreements over European payments to AU peacekeepers in Somalia. The fifth AU-EU summit in November presents a chance to reinvigorate the partnership if both sides can deal openly with disagreements, address deep-seated mutual frustration and agree to tackle the root causes driving migrants toward Europe.
Jihadist violence in the West African Sahel has now spread to the north of Burkina Faso. The response of Ouagadougou and its partners must go beyond the obvious religious and security dimensions of the crisis, and any solution must take into account deep-rooted social and local factors.