International Crisis Group

Endiguer la dérive autoritaire en Tunisie

Report Nº 180 / Middle East & North Africa. La polarisation politique et la nostalgie, illusoire, d’un gouvernement centralisé fort planent au-dessus du septième anniversaire du déclenchement de la révolution tunisienne de 2011. La coalition au pouvoir devra mener les réformes qu’elle avait promises, mettre en place la Cour constitutionnelle et organiser des élections municipales, déjà reportées à de nombreuses reprises, si elle veut que la transition tunisienne reste l’exemple d’une transition réussie dans le monde arabe.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/180-endiguer-la-derive-autoritaire-en-tunisie.pdf https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/180-stemming-tunisias-authoritarian-drift_0.pdf

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2018. From North Korea to Venezuela, here are the conflicts to watch in 2018

That’s a statement more easily written than believed, given the U.S. president’s erratic comportment on the world stage — his tweets and taunts, his cavalier disregard of international accords, his readiness to undercut his own diplomats, his odd choice of foes, and his even odder choice of friends. And yet, a more inward-looking United States and a greater international diffusion of power, increasingly militarized foreign policy, and shrinking space for multilateralism and diplomacy are features of the international order that predate the current occupant of the White House and look set to outlast him.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/10%20Conflicts%20to%20Watch%20in%202018-A4.pdf

Ukraine: Will the Centre Hold?

Report Nº 247 / Europe & Central Asia. Far from the deadly battle against Kremlin-backed separatists in its eastern provinces, Kyiv faces a groundswell of resentment and disenfranchisement among citizens in the country’s west. To restore faith in the state’s laws and institutions, the government must address endemic corruption to win back those in the state’s margins.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/247-ukraine-will-the-centre-hold.pdf

Zimbabwe’s “Military-assisted Transition” and Prospects for Recovery

Briefing Nº 134 / Africa. President Emmerson Mnangagwa has the chance to embark on a much-needed process of economic and governance reform in Zimbabwe. The military’s role in the political transition casts a shadow on the road to credible elections, which remain a priority if his government is to earn national and international legitimacy.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/b134-zimbabwez-s-military-assistedtransition.pdf

El Salvador’s Politics of Perpetual Violence

Report Nº 64 / Latin America & Caribbean. Intense gang warfare continEl ues to plague El Salvador, undeterred by successive governments’ heavy-handed and militarised repression policies. More investment in holistic violence prevention strategies and economic alternatives to criminal violence are necessary if the country’s chronic insecurity crisis is to be alleviated.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/064-el-salvador-s-politics-of-perpetual-violence.pdf

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/064-el-salvador-s-politics-of-perpetual-violence-spanish.pdf

Finding the Right Role for the G5 Sahel Joint Force

Launched in February 2017, the G5 Sahel joint force is an experiment in a region crowded by sometimes-competing military and diplomatic initiatives. Weapons and money will not be enough to resolve the Sahel’s crises, so the force must win the trust and support of both local populations and regional powers.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/file/5526/download?token=u03DYg9K

 

Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase

The mass flight of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar’s Rakhine State has created a humanitarian catastrophe and serious security risks, including potential cross-border militant attacks. The international community should press the Myanmar government to urgently implement the Annan commission’s proposals, including as regards discrimination, segregation and citizenship.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/file/5501/download?token=vwU4oBWj

 

Time for Concerted Action in DR Congo

President Kabila’s delaying tactics are holding hostage DR Congo’s political transition, while internal strife and government repression are weakening the opposition. Western and African actors need to coordinate their approach to the deepening crisis, support the advancement of democratic elections and encourage the opening of political space.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/file/5481/download?token=L1fPRNle

 

Venezuela: la deuda del hambre

La mala gestión económica, la corrupción y la disminución de las reservas han llevado a Venezuela a la ruina y a atrasar los pagos de sus deudas generando un incumplimiento parcial de estas. Negociaciones comprehensivas y supervisadas internacionalmente, que incluyan la restauración de los poderes al parlamento son esenciales para allanar el camino hacia una reestructuración de la deuda y unas elecciones presidenciales libres y justas.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/B37%20Spanish%20translation%20Venezuela%20-%20Hunger%20by%20Default_0.pdf

Jihadism in Southern Thailand: A Phantom Menace

Asia Report N°291. Thailand’s Malay-Muslim society overwhelmingly rejects transnational jihadism, but the country’s vulnerable south is a potential seedbed for advocates of violence. Bangkok and the main militant separatist organisation can head off any jihadist expansion in South East Asia by energising peace talks and agreeing on a more decentralised political system.

https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/291-jihadism-in-southern-thailand-a-phantom-menace.pdf