ACAPS and the Mixed Migration Platform have produced a new set of Middle East–EU migration scenarios, outlining possible developments in migration via Turkey and Greece over the next six months. Following scenario-building workshops in Brussels and Antakya in January and February, five scenarios were identified:
- Continued restricted migration
- Number of asylum-seekers in Greece falls
- Number of asylum-seekers in Greece increases
- Increased returns to Syria
- Increased movement into Turkey
The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.